Germany’s Political Crossroads: The Rise of the AfD and the Struggles of the Establishment
“For the first time since the Nazis, the far-right is on the cusp of winning the most votes in German state elections”
The AfD's performance in Germany's eastern states, where it is now either leading or neck-and-neck with the conservative Christian Democratic Union (CDU), represents a watershed moment in German politics. This increase is not only a reaction to recent events, such as the horrific knife assault carried out by a Syrian asylum seeker, but rather represents a broader, long-standing dissatisfaction with the perceived failings of German reunification. Eastern Germans, who continue to face economic and social discrepancies with their western counterparts, see the AfD as a vehicle for change, a means of asserting their identity and challenging the established parties' perceived elitism.
This view is echoed by supporters such as 16-year-old Constantin from Meiningen, who expresses unhappiness with the country's ongoing east-west division. His opinions, shared by many young eastern Germans, show that the AfD's appeal stems not from radical ideology, but rather from a widespread sense of being forgotten and undervalued by the political elite. These feelings are heightened by a growing dissatisfaction of what is seen as excessive state intervention, such as green initiatives, asylum legislation, and military assistance for Ukraine.
Counterclaims: Is AfD a solution or a symptom of underlying problems?
While the AfD positions itself as a voice for the downtrodden, it is critical to question whether the party truly offers solutions or simply capitalises on existing concerns. The AfD's track record shows clear linkages to extremist networks and rhetoric that frequently borders on xenophobia and anti-democratic attitude. Björn Höcke, the party's divisive leader in Thuringia, has been punished for invoking Nazi chants, but he denies doing so deliberately. This raises major questions about whether the development of the AfD is a legitimate expression of political discontent or a dangerous comeback of far-right extremism disguised as populism.
Proponents believe that characterising the AfD as solely extreme ignores the legitimate concerns of its supporters. Many in the east believe that claims against the AfD are politically driven, owing to their scepticism of the state and mainstream media, which was moulded by their experiences with the GDR's Stasi. However, disregarding these linkages risks normalising dangerous views, therefore it is critical to draw a boundary between addressing real complaints and supporting extremism.
The establishment's response is fragmentation and crisis.
The growth of the AfD has revealed the weakness of Chancellor Olaf Scholz's "traffic light" combination of Social Democrats (SPD), Greens, and Liberals. Internal disagreements have plagued this coalition, leaving it unable to show a united front against the AfD's advance. The coalition's solutions to current crises, including as migration and security concerns, have been criticised as premature and reactionary, undermining public trust. Scholz's attempt to mimic Angela Merkel's calm and steady leadership has failed in the face of rising obstacles, such as the Ukraine conflict and the pandemic's aftermath.
Even inside Scholz's own party, there are signs of unrest. SPD activist Levi Schlegtendal's observation on the coalition's turbulent history reveals a loss of direction and purpose. The coalition's dropping support in Thuringia, where it may not win a single seat, reflects widespread unhappiness among voters.
The broader implications: A litmus test for Germany's political future.
These elections are more than just regional battles; they serve as a litmus test for Germany's political climate as it prepares for federal elections in 2025. The AfD's potential to win top posts in three eastern states—Thuringia, Saxony, and Brandenburg—will have far-reaching consequences for German democracy. While other parties are likely to work together to build a "firewall" against the AfD, this strategy may not be enough if the underlying causes of anger are not addressed.
Under Friedrich Merz's leadership, the CDU has begun to turn rightward in a bid to regain people who have become disillusioned with the mainstream. This move risks legitimising some of the AfD's narratives and eroding the distinction between conservatism and radicalism. As the establishment works to curb the emergence of the AfD, it must also acknowledge that its own failures—economic, social, and political—have contributed to the current crisis.
Conclusion: navigating a fragmented political landscape.
The growth of the AfD serves as a harsh warning that Germany is not immune to the populist tsunami sweeping Europe. It reflects a greater dissatisfaction with the political system and a yearning for change, even if that change has the potential to destabilise the democratic structure. As the AfD gains pace, Germany's mainstream parties face the problem of not just containing the far-right, but also effectively addressing the grievances of those who feel left behind. The outcome of the next federal elections will determine whether Germany can navigate these tumultuous waters while maintaining its democratic institutions and society's cohesion.
Full article: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c05jvve89g3o